It’s that time of year again folks.
The weather has most definitely cooled off, the alps have received their first few dustings and the spin goes in to overdrive.
We’re all excited about going skiing, none more than myself. And it’s this enthusiasm that brings out every cliche in the book, old wives tales and other phenomena that are supposedly a portent to a great season.
Ever see a pre-season prediction that it is going to be a shocker? Didn’t think so.
‘Ground Cooler’ is a funny one, but it’s the word ‘Bumper’ that should have you running away. Fast. I’ve never seen that word used in any objective fashion regarding the upcoming season. It’s a surefire sign that the quote or article you’re reading is based on pure hope rather than hard facts.
As I explained this time last year, long range forecasting is largely rubbish, and asking if it is going to be a good season makes you look like a dickhead. Even though there was some indication last year due to a weakening El Nina pattern, as described on Snowatch we are now in a neutral phase. The Weather Nerds have a similar discussion thread, again largely driven by the effects of ocean currents but with nothing concrete to signify anything in either direction.
So as we sit now there is no specific signal to definitively say that the ski season is going to lean in either direction.
Again as I discussed last year, while I am no fan of season predictions and long range forecasts, where I do get interested is both in the Medium to Short Range timeframe as I believe you can narrow down your chances significantly with these techniques, and then refine it down to a daily or even hourly fashion, tracking a snow storm as it blows through. This is why I love the new campaign from Hotham and Falls – Chuck a Snowie – last minute snow chasing trips are the best!
The good news is that we are now in a time window where medium range forecasts begin to show significance for the start of the season. While the dustings have melted thus far, a 20-30cm fall towards the end of this month may have a chance of sticking around if it is followed up with cool conditions. I did go to Lake Mountain for an XC ski in mid-May last year but that snowfall sadly melted. And of course we all remember the scenario in May 2000 where a metre of snow fell on the last weekend in May, the resorts opened a week early on June 2nd and by Queen’s Birthday they had enough staff organised to open fully and we were skiing the entire mountain including Federation and Tyrol/Village to the bottom and also Fanny’s Finish etc.
The Weather Nerds have identified another system a little over a week out – in my opinion it’s still a couple of days away from showing its true colours, but at this stage it looks like something may happen around the dates 22-24 May.
Due to my unhealthy obsession with Weather in the Winter months I generally tend to completely ignore it over summer, only looking to see if it will rain when I’m playing golf, so this is the first system that has really caught my attention this year, and will keep you updated as it progresses with updates from Weatherzone, Jane’s Weather etc.
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