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Is 2011 Going To Be a Good Ski Season?

Buller Aug 08
Buller Aug 08

As a Ski Instructor & Lodge Manager for many years – it was a question that I loathed.

It never ceased to surprise me that such a question should be asked in such an earnest manner by such a large group of people who really should know better. Not to mention the myths, superstitions and old wive’s tales of events and sightings that could somehow divine future snowfalls – Black Cockatoos, Bogong Moths, Lake Eyre, I’ve heard them all.

I know everyone is excited at this time of year, hell, I did a 10km XC loop on totally inappropriate equipment 10 days ago just because I could. But just because we’re keen for our next fix doesn’t mean we should swallow whole some guff about a ‘bumper season’ (vomit) just because we really, really, really want it to happen.

Another thing you will find about pre-season predictions is that they’re never negative, I’m sure that would be bad for business. Plenty of resorts have paid for the forecasts of John Moore, and published them to anyone who would listen. I’m just glad they omitted the Bible passages and spelling mistakes. Moore is somewhat of a laughing stock on the ski.com.au Weather Forum whose members have retrospectively analysed his forecasts, compared them with actual snowfalls and came up with a very poor correlation. Holton Weather have also played the early snowfall game, and even The Frog has had a dip this year.

But what you will note is Frog’s reference to La Nina. Frog was one of the first amateur forecasters to make medium range predictions based on computer models that prior to the existence of the Internet were not available to the general public. He soon made a name for himself in predicting systems in the late 90’s and early 00’s, and has built up a very strong following.

For all the superstitions surrounding snowfalls, it would seem that the only real empirical data that has any relevance is Sea Surface Temperatures, and indicators like the SOI which measures the disparity between air pressures in Tahiti and Darwin – this is designed to measure the effect of the ocean currents El Nino and La Nina as detailed here by the BOM. There is a strong correlation between El Nino/La Nina and drought/wet weather patterns respectively. Here’s some commentary from the forum regulars.

So, where does this leave us? We want to book a ski holiday and all we’re being told is not to listen to crackpots and that there are a couple of ocean currents named after Spanish children.

The truth is, nobody knows.

While El Nino and La Nina do have an influence, it is not the be-all-end-all, and it all really comes down to luck. The unpredictability of weather is part of our daily lives, but in this information age we seem totally reluctant to cede control and cling in hope to anything that will validate our decision and outlay.

My advice? Book your holiday. Go skiing. There’s nothing you can do about the weather, but at least you will be in the fresh air and out of the office

Long range forecasting is an art, not a science, and don’t belie your intelligence by asking somebody Is 2011 Going To Be a Good Ski Season?

I will follow this post up in a couple of days with my tips for Medium and Short Range Weather Forecasting. I don’t believe in the Long Range stuff, but if you have a flexible schedule you can use Medium and Short Range forecasts to seriously make the most of your time in the mountains.

2011 Buller Reports – what do YOU want?

Last year I settled into a bit of a cycle of reporting that seemed to work well, and tended to lend itself to weekend skiers at Buller.

I’d start off the week with any news on upcoming weather systems, and update the post as the models refreshed and the forecasts became closer to reality.

Then on a Thursday I’d speak to some people on the Mountain to get a precis of the conditions and what you could expect for the coming weekend, and from Friday nights through the weekend I’d live blog from the hill (or Koflers) with current information, often followed a summary and photos on a Sunday night, and then start the process again.

Naturally I’d also write articles on anything else I felt was relevant at the time, and also the usual self-indulgent dross that most bloggers seem incapable of avoiding.

My mantra on this site is that it is by a skier, for skiers. If you want press-release fluff talking up ‘bumper seasons’ and ‘iconic landmarks’ then you can find it at any number of sources on the web, so I try to keep it distilled down to the details that are, in my opinion, front-of-mind for people that take their skiing seriously.

While all blogs are by definition self-indulgent, given the 45k visits that this site has received since its inception a bit less than a year ago, it seems to be of value to others as well, so I’d love to hear from you in the comments below what kind of information you are after.

Also let me know is the Facebook page of value? What about Twitter? Do you use RSS? Are the new Facebook comments better than the old style?

Tilt-Shift in the Snow – Everything is Tiny!

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A couple of months ago this video hit the web and I was absolutely captivated:

A Tiny Day in the Jackson Hole Backcountry from Tristan Greszko on Vimeo.

I watch a lot of ski footage, and this was the most remarkable edit I had witnessed this year.

The cinematographer had used a technique called ‘Tilt Shift’ which, through the use of creative blurring of the foreground and background, fools the eye into thinking it is looking at a miniature model set instead of a real scene. The footage was sped up & the colour saturation increased to further enhance the illusion. Originally specialised lenses were required to achieve this effect, but now it can be done post-production on computer.

There is also a version shot at Whistler:

Whistler Blackcomb XXS from Whistler Blackcomb on Vimeo.

Both videos are best watched in HD and Full Screen.

I certainly wasn’t the only person inspired by the clips, and saw that a poster on the ski.com.au forums had given it a try. So I delved through my photo libraries and tried a few for myself, these were the best outcomes:

Vallée Blanche Tilt Shift
Vallée Blanche Tilt Shift
Val d'Isère Tilt Shift
Val d'Isère Tilt Shift
Broken River, NZ Tilt Shift
Broken River, NZ Tilt Shift
Verbier Tilt Shift
Verbier Tilt Shift

It then caught on, with everyone on the forums having a go.

Ski scenes lend themselves to Tilt Shift photos, naturally all of these pics were not shot with the effect in mind, so I will have a go at Buller this year and see what I can manage.

Backcountry Adventures in HD

I finally got the chance to work on some of the videos from our trip to France – the anaemic netbook I took away was barely powerful enough to view the videos, let alone edit them, and our net connection wasn’t strong enough to upload in HD. So here’s some short videos of our BC adventures, I definitely recommend watching them in 720p HD:

Ski Touring in Dormillouse (Trip Report here):

httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5-nMhLrqoU

Ski Touring in Abries (Trip Report here):

httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC5Tih7nkBs

Let me know what you think!

UPDATE: Buller Pre-Season Update – Snowmaking & Summer Grooming

UPDATE: Saturday 11:30am – just got this in an SMS from the hill:

Cow camp got slashed as did all of hogs back plug hole sun valley fall line and some work down the bottom of fed boulders etc. Snowmaking work is all done. Pressurising the lines tomorrow in the hope to make Tuesday.

After the call-out I made in my previous post I just got a phone call from someone currently up at Buller with a few updates on what’s going on up there at the moment.

The final touches are still being put on the new snowmaking areas, the York automated guns which have proven to be a raging success on Shakey Knees and Summit have now been installed in a few key areas on the mountain. Most notably they are on the top of Wombat, which previously had to rely on the tower mounted fan guns that were shared with Little Buller Spur, and also on Family Run and Chute. It is expected that the final work will be completed by the weekend, in time for the next storm which looks like hitting on Sunday.

At this stage it looks like rain at first, and an uncertain amount of snow to follow. Keep an eye on Jane’s Weather for her daily updates which include an Alpine forecast, and once the system hits an ‘Obervations’ thread will be started on the ski.com.au Weather Forum providing live updates from around the mountains.

The other big news that I received from the caller was the summer grooming that had been performed. Things were getting pretty overgrown in my beloved Bull Run bowl, Hog’s Back and Sun Valley were becoming overrun with saplings which really detracted from the skiing on a couple of the best runs on the mountain. There was even talk of a guerilla summer grooming work weekend amongst the Buller regulars on the ski.com.au forums.

This is how it looked last year with a medium amount of snow:

Hog's Back Mt Buller
Hog's Back Mt Buller

Even the weekend after last year’s epic dump it was still overgrown:

Hog's Back Mt Buller
Hog's Back Mt Buller

So it’s good to hear that this has apparently been addressed. Another area that was sorely in need of attention was Cow Camp, I’ve asked the question and my contact will report back as to whether it has been cut back.

Overgrown Buller
Overgrown Buller

Mt Buller – Burnt Hut Chairlift Update

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Forgot to add this to my last blog on Snowmaking and Summer Grooming.

As I’m sure many of you are aware the Burnt Hut lift was hit by lightning prior to the 2010 season and the drive station burned to the ground. Buller quickly reacted and installed 2 long magic carpets to cater for the beginners in the area. Also further plans to realign the lift, and add a new lift to bring skiers up to Baldy were released & reported here last year.

Burnt Hut Chair Replacement
Burnt Hut Chair Replacement

It’s my understanding that the DSE has rejected Buller’s application for the new lift, with the Department issuing a number of requests for compliance before the permit will be granted. It was also described to me that this process is not unusual and the items that need to be addressed are all achievable, or are refutable. However the time taken will mean that the approval, and hence the new lift will not be available until after this Winter. Buller is still planning the realignment and the second lift, and I think both will be excellent additions to the area.

If anyone has more information please feel free to leave a comment.

And so it begins, Perisher to Open, Snowmaking on Standby Elsewhere

While perusing the snowcams that convinced me to head to Lake Mountain yesterday, I noticed that Perisher’s Front Valley looked damn near skiable.

ski.com.au Perisher Cam
ski.com.au Perisher Cam

They were obviously thinking the same thing, as they announced today that they will be opening this weekend. There is a staff ski day on Thursday, and public skiing on Friday and Saturday. Inclement weather is expected on Sunday so no lifts are planned.

Lift tickets are $30 for adults & $15 for kids, with the proceeds to be donated to charity (no details on which charity this is). Buller took advantage of an early dump and opened for the first weekend of May in 2009. While the skiing wasn’t particularly exciting, it was a great vibe for those who turned up and I’m sure a wonderful PR/Marketing exercise for the lift company.

Favourable snowmaking weather is set to return around the weekend, Falls Creek has already cranked up the guns last week, with Hotham and Thredbo looking to capitalise if the conditions cooperate. I’ve not heard any plans from Buller, but leave a comment on this post or on Facebook if you do know.

I don’t tend to get too excited about early snows, prior to the year 2000 it was always seen as a bad omen, but it looks like what Perisher has on the ground will make it through until June and beyond. The Weather Nerds in this thread are getting excited about some action on approx May 24th/25th, Jane’s Weather mentions the potential for significant snow after Sunday, so we will wait and see if that co-operates.

Any skiing in May is a novelty, and good skiing in June is a bonus, so it will be interesting to see if we can tick both boxes in the coming weeks.

TR: Lake Mountain 15/5/11 – May Skiing

It had been 8 weeks since we had skied, and that was enough.

My Autumn had been ruined with a back injury sustained picking up my ski bag at the airport on our return from Europe, usually this period of settled, cool weather is best spent on the golf course, but I had only ventured out for an abortive 9 holes a fortnight ago, followed by 18 last weekend. Having spent 10 years at Mt Buller teaching in the rain I don’t tend to elect to spend my leisure time doing the same, so when I woke up yesterday morning to single digit temperatures and rain on the roof, golf was promptly cancelled.

However when I jumped on the net that morning the webcams looked white, and there were some reports filtering in that Baw Baw and Lake Mountain had received 20-30cm of snow. This is not at all unusual when the storms track in from the south west, and given our recent acquisitions of touring gear I began to hatch a plan. Andrew had just moved back south from Brisbane, and I knew he had a full XC kit so I thought why not head up to Lake Mountain for Sunday? Andrew was keen, he hadn’t XC skied in 5 years, so we decided to meet in the morning and check things out.

May has proven to be the most elusive month for skiing, generally in the US we were well and truly ready to get off the snow by mid-April, and it was only in 2009 that we skied in May for the first time when Buller had a 50cm dump and opened the lifts for the weekend of the 2nd of May.

Lake Mountain is an easy 120km drive from home, which took us a little over 2 hours with stops for petrol, food, coffee etc. We also dropped into the Mystic Mountains Ski Hire in Narbethong to have a chat to Rosemary about the conditions. She kindly offered Nicole and I some XC skis but the reports were that the snow was deep and unconsolidated so we thought we might stick to our wider, but heavier touring setup. To be honest I didn’t really know what to expect, we had low expectations of ‘glorified snowplay’ but there was snow on the ground so we knew we would have fun.

As the road ascended we rose into the mist, a scene which as Buller skiers we are all too familiar, and made it to the car park, where we got changed and into our gear. Given the poor weather and visibility, plus complete unfamiliarity with our surroundings we all overdressed terribly – with visions of former State Government Minister Tim Holding in our minds – but we were not far up the trail where we realised that we needn’t have bothered. Our packs were weighed down with all the extra layers we brought but the effects of hypothermia had been well drilled into us over the years.

Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain

We were pleasantly surprised with what we found. A reasonable amount of skier traffic had set the trails well, despite the lingering wet mist the temperatures were around freezing and quite pleasant, and the snow was soft without being slow and gluggy. Everything was well signposted and we met some lovely people around the trails. As we didn’t know our way around, everyone was most helpful in providing tips on where to go.

Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain

We ended up doing a large counter-clockwise circuit of the trails on the mountain, Andrew had his cycling GPS watch on, and it measured our total distance at 10.5km. Certain body parts began hurting at about the 6km mark, but we decided to do the ‘Panorama Loop’. I’m not sure why, as all we saw was a panorama of the fog while in quite a bit of pain. It was around that point that we really regretted not trading our touring gear for more lightweight XC stuff, but we were not out to set records, and it was great to spend a day on the snow amongst friends.

Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain
Skiing at Lake Mountain

We covered the 10km loop in a pretty leisurely pace of a little over 3 hours, including stops for rest, food, chatting etc, and returned to the car exhausted. Overall it was a very worthwhile day and good to get some elusive May skiing in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk6Zd9I_hGw

TR: Days 20-21 – Road Trip – Monte Rosa

With the foehn still persisting in Chamonix we had another enforced day off after our adventure to Trient. Winds & Clouds meant that most interesting options were off the radar, and we didn’t really feel like yo-yo-ing on the pistes with the hordes.

Word was filtering through that the Monte Rosa region of Italy had received a decent amount of fresh snow, so we made the split decision to head in that direction, and by lunchtime we were on skis in the town of Gressoney-La-Trinite. The region, particularly Alagna, has started to receive some coverage as a top shelf freeride destination over the last few years, so we were definitely keen to check it out.

The plan was to take the lifts over to Alagna, and spend the night in that town before our last day’s skiing. Unfortunately winds, visibility and avalanche risk had closed the link to Alagna, so we decided to head up the other side of the valley towards Champoluc for a look around.

Jerome’s first ride on a hooded chairlift:

Gressoney
Gressoney

Praying for snow Nepal style:

Champoluc
Champoluc

There was fresh snow in Champoluc, but unfortunately the fog was dense and the temperature had increased, so we stumbled our way around in the claggy snow. It looked like a very fun place to ski, with a different outlook to the other areas we had skied during our trip.

Champoluc
Champoluc

Dodgy Gondola:

Proof we are in Monte Rosa
Proof we are in Monte Rosa

How a guide finds his way around a new area:

How a guide finds his way
How a guide finds his way

Despite the poor visibility and heavy snow, we were starting to like the feel of the area. The skies were forecast to clear overnight, and we were looking forward to our last day on skis. After skiing we found a cool bar & restaurant in Gressoney-St-Jean called the Flying Brasserie and had a lovely dinner which led into far too many drinks afterwards. The bar was somewhat of a local hangout and we befriended the natives, with Jerome pumping them for information on where to ski the next day.

At the bar
At the bar
Party
Party

We wound up well on the wrong side of midnight, but as we stumbled our way to the hotel, we could see stars and a clear sky which we were hoping was a good sign for the morning.

As our last day dawned the dun did indeed shine, but regrettably the winds were howling:

Sunny Monte Rosa
Sunny Monte Rosa
Wind towards Alagna
Wind towards Alagna

All the upper lifts in the area were shut due to the wind, and the lower slopes would have been packed as the day was a de-facto public holiday due to the previous day being the 150th anniversary of the unification of Italy, with many locals electing to take a long weekend.

We were pretty gutted, every decent ski area on the Italy-Swiss border was closed due to wind. Cervinia would have been a reasonable option but alas they were closed up top as well.

Jerome sought out a couple of the local guides who conveyed their pessimism that little of interest would open for the day. So it was with much regret that our last day had been a write off, we grabbed a coffee and jumped in the van back to Chamonix.

Safe location for a house in the Gressoney valley…..:

Safe House
Safe House

We even dropped by a tiny resort near the Col du Grand St Bernard called Crevacol with the hope of a ski tour from the top, but even their upper lift was closed due to the wind.

Crevacol
Crevacol

So after a lovely pasta lunch we returned to Chamonix where we packed up in preparation for a 6am departure to Geneva Airport the next day.

Back to Cham
Back to Cham

Despite our lack of fortune in the Monte Rosa area we left the place with a good vibe, it was definitely a place we were interested in returning to ski. After talking to some of the particularly passionate locals in the bar we were convinced that in the right conditions it could be a very worthy destination. As many people often say about travelling, you need to leave something for next time, so in addition to the famous Chamonix lines that we weren’t able to ski due to low snow, the Monte Rosa region is definitely a box left unticked. Jerome agrees, and is going to attempt to head there with friends to learn the area better as he sees the enormous potential as well.

TR: Chamonix Day 18 – Le Tour – Trient Ski Tour

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So while the first couple of weeks blessed us with clear skies, mild temperatures, low winds and a couple of snowfalls, our third week was proving a little tougher. A persistent foehn in the valley was making things quite unpleasant, and while it was being driven by snowfall on the Italian slope, high cloud meant that visibility was compromised. And as we were now heading into Spring of what had so far been a pretty ordinary season, there wasn’t the snowpack down low to ski below the clouds.

Jerome had done an absolutely superb job in moving us around to make the most of the conditions and the weather, but it was becoming a difficult task. The disappointing aspect of this was that after 2 weeks we were now ski fit, with strong legs and lungs, all the earlier niggles were now dialled in, and we were a lot more mobile having progressed with our touring techniques.

Grey skies in spring, especially after a warm period, are a recipe for persistent firm snow, which stymied our requests to get into the steeps that the Chamonix area was famous for. Lines that we had earlier skied under blue skies and in corn snow like the Couloirs Rama and Marbrées would now be death traps.

As well as not being good for serious descents, we were about to learn about ascending in the hard snow. Jerome had wanted us to take the popular Col du Passon ski tour, as well as being one of the classics in Chamonix, it is also increasingly being used in preference to the Col du Chardonnet as the first leg of the Haute Route. But with the top cable car of Les Grands Montets being closed due to wind we needed to make an alternate arrangement, so we decided to ski tour from Le Tour to Trient with an ascent of Les Grandes Autannes, a 2700m peak on the French/Swiss border. In a regular season and softer snow it would have been a pretty pedestrian 500m ascent, however firm snow and exposed grass made things a little different.

We rode up a gondola and chair at Le Tour, fixed our skins & ski crampons and started climbing:

Richard Skinning
Richard Skinning
Nicole Skinning
Nicole Skinning

After a couple of precarious kick turns on the steep ice it was time to rope up and switch to crampons. My baggy Rip Curl pants are not particularly suited to this kind of activity and the legs are now sporting some crampon holes from a couple of missed steps!

Crampons on, Roped Up
Crampons on, Roped Up

It was pretty slow progress alternating between the crusty snow and frozen grassy patches as we learned new techniques – while the rope was obviously very useful for safety it was also quite restrictive, doing it on ones own with a piolet in hand would be a much more comfortable proposition.

Climbing
Climbing

Straddling the border:

Last Ridge
Last Ridge
On Top
On Top
On Top
On Top

Once we reached the top we were in the full force of the foehn, but noticed that it was also blowing some nice soft snow into the valley. So we dropped into the Swiss side of the ridgeline, alternating between fresh and windpacked snow:

Fresh Tracks
Fresh Tracks
Smiling
Smiling

Great views of the Glacier des Grandes and Glacier du Trient as we descended:

Trient Glacier
Trient Glacier

Alta skiers get around:

Alta skiers everywhere
Alta skiers everywhere

We then reached the valley and skied alongside the farms to the small town of Trient:

Skiing to the bus
Skiing to the bus

Jerome had planned to catch an earlier bus from Trient and come back around to ski another couloir, but we were a lot slower than anticipated on the ascent due to the trying conditions for rookie climbers, so we had an hour to kill and found ourselves a nice lunch:

Lunch in Trient
Lunch in Trient

This was followed by a bus around to Vallorcine, where we took a couple of lifts to ski back to the car at Le Tour. While we had spent much of our trip up high and on glaciers, the lower reaches were looking like Australia in a bad season:

Chamonix or Mt Buller???
Chamonix or Mt Buller???