Unfortunately I have to start this post with some sad news.
Regular aussieskier.com readers will know that I have strongly referenced and recommended Jane Bunn’s weather forecasts over the last couple of years. They were most accurate and an excellent resource. Unfortunately she has closed down her site, I have been in contact via email and she has supplied the following statement:
Unfortunately things have changed, and due to my work commitments I am no longer able to produce an internet forecast. Thank you for your feedback, it is much appreciated.
If you live in regional Victoria you can still catch my weather segment each weeknight on WIN News.
So whilst she cannot continue we should be most thankful over the last couple of years of clear and accurate snow/weather forecasts.
Now – what about the current weather? In case you hadn’t noticed today is particularly warm & windy with most lifts at the resorts on wind hold. Temperatures around the 5 degree mark and winds in excess of 100km/h. Unfortunately warm winds melt snow quicker than anything else so lower North-facing areas will be copping a hiding. The Radar shows the precipitation starting to hit the mountains as at 11:30 while typing this sentence and it will be reaching Melbourne shortly. Naturally this precipitation will begin as rain until the cold air arrives.
There is some serious juice in this storm – the Weather Chaser Composite Radar/Satellite animation is mesmerising, but the million dollar question is the timing of the cold air to transform the damaging rain into snow.
User ‘Claude Cat’ on the ski.com.au weather forum posted the following meteogram from forecast site http://yr.no showing their expectation of the transition coming late on Thursday night:
Most forecasts are predicting something in the 20-30cm range, such as Weatherzone & The Frog but Mountainwatch’s Grasshopper does not detail a snow prediction, yet agrees with the tone of all the other forecasts.
So I think the next 36 hours are a great opportunity to do anything but look at the webcams, as they won’t be a pretty sight until things turn late on Thursday or early Friday – my personal feeling with this storm is that there will be a nett loss of snow at lower elevations but a good nett gain up high. Saturday could be the pick of the days or even Sunday which is good news for all the weekend warriors.
Looking further afield, there is the prospect of another storm a week after this one. Not wanting to make too rash a prediction but I’d love a repeat of 2003 where we had regular top-ups of fresh through out September and even into October.
