As a Ski Instructor & Lodge Manager for many years – it was a question that I loathed.
It never ceased to surprise me that such a question should be asked in such an earnest manner by such a large group of people who really should know better. Not to mention the myths, superstitions and old wive’s tales of events and sightings that could somehow divine future snowfalls – Black Cockatoos, Bogong Moths, Lake Eyre, I’ve heard them all.
I know everyone is excited at this time of year, hell, I did a 10km XC loop on totally inappropriate equipment 10 days ago just because I could. But just because we’re keen for our next fix doesn’t mean we should swallow whole some guff about a ‘bumper season’ (vomit) just because we really, really, really want it to happen.
Another thing you will find about pre-season predictions is that they’re never negative, I’m sure that would be bad for business. Plenty of resorts have paid for the forecasts of John Moore, and published them to anyone who would listen. I’m just glad they omitted the Bible passages and spelling mistakes. Moore is somewhat of a laughing stock on the ski.com.au Weather Forum whose members have retrospectively analysed his forecasts, compared them with actual snowfalls and came up with a very poor correlation. Holton Weather have also played the early snowfall game, and even The Frog has had a dip this year.
But what you will note is Frog’s reference to La Nina. Frog was one of the first amateur forecasters to make medium range predictions based on computer models that prior to the existence of the Internet were not available to the general public. He soon made a name for himself in predicting systems in the late 90’s and early 00’s, and has built up a very strong following.
For all the superstitions surrounding snowfalls, it would seem that the only real empirical data that has any relevance is Sea Surface Temperatures, and indicators like the SOI which measures the disparity between air pressures in Tahiti and Darwin – this is designed to measure the effect of the ocean currents El Nino and La Nina as detailed here by the BOM. There is a strong correlation between El Nino/La Nina and drought/wet weather patterns respectively. Here’s some commentary from the forum regulars.
So, where does this leave us? We want to book a ski holiday and all we’re being told is not to listen to crackpots and that there are a couple of ocean currents named after Spanish children.
The truth is, nobody knows.
While El Nino and La Nina do have an influence, it is not the be-all-end-all, and it all really comes down to luck. The unpredictability of weather is part of our daily lives, but in this information age we seem totally reluctant to cede control and cling in hope to anything that will validate our decision and outlay.
My advice? Book your holiday. Go skiing. There’s nothing you can do about the weather, but at least you will be in the fresh air and out of the office
Long range forecasting is an art, not a science, and don’t belie your intelligence by asking somebody Is 2011 Going To Be a Good Ski Season?
I will follow this post up in a couple of days with my tips for Medium and Short Range Weather Forecasting. I don’t believe in the Long Range stuff, but if you have a flexible schedule you can use Medium and Short Range forecasts to seriously make the most of your time in the mountains.
